Informing Planning and Policy Processes

Over the course of the 5-year project period, we will conduct a techno-economic-environmental analysis to inform investment priorities for energy- and water-related systems and technologies, using LCCA to track economic costs and benefits and LCA to quantify environmental effects of products, processes, or systems from raw material procurement to disposal, recycling, or reuse. We will expand and/or adapt prior research on developing LCA tools for urban water systems, water efficiency LCAs, and carbon abatement cost (CAC) curves for water technologies to Chinese conditions, as well as develop similar methods and/or tools for evaluating water use and related environmental effects in energy systems. The overarching question we plan to address is: Which are the most cost- and resource-efficient technologies that can be implemented under a range of current and projected future conditions in order to explore the United States’ and China’s water-energy nexus? 

China is rapidly expanding its energy production capabilities, building new coal mines in the arid north, coal liquefaction and coal gasification facilities in the desert steppes of north-central China, shale gas operations in the arid western parts of China, tight oil extraction in the Ordos, and major hydropower facilities in the south. Meanwhile, States in the Southwest of the USA are facing prolonged drought accompanied by decreased hydro-generation and rising energy requirements to maintain water supplies. For example, urban areas are looking at expanding energy-intensive desalinization to supplement potable water supplies at a time when conservation efforts promise to lower total water deliveries. The intertwined nature of water and energy use means that co-management is essential for the future sustainability of these activities. We will develop integrated assessment (IA) capabilities to allow stakeholders to observe the tradeoffs between multiple options and policy decisions and to test hypotheses/premises in a scenario-driven environment. For China, we anticipate that this project will highlight the advantages of lower emission energy development, including more demand management and renewable energy options that tend to use less water. For California, we anticipate developing a parallel model to access integrated water-energy system greenhouse gas emissions. The latter research will be paired with research in Topic Area 4 to evaluate the integrated model of climate change-impacted hydrological patterns, electric grid resource dispatch, and other oil refining and shale gas development.

The project will (1) develop a framework to evaluate water limits to energy source demands for selected energy development scenarios; (2) illustrate climate impacts on future water-energy development paths; (3) model water limits of future energy development in key regions of China and in California; and (4) influence Chinese and Californian policy to ensure that energy-water supplies and demands and are consistent with available resources, now and in the future. Year 1 tasks include reviewing water-energy literature and models, identifying and strengthening relationships with relevant policymakers and research institutes in China and California, defining energy development and water supply scenarios, and developing water-energy models for China and California. We will draw on our detailed LEAP-based China Energy End-Use Model to develop both the energy supply and demand scenarios for evaluation. These energy models will be linked to water assessment tools (including WEAP) to evaluate water supplies in key energy regions of China and to reveal possible water limits to energy growth. This research will build upon work with similar water-energy models to evaluate how water supply limits energy generation in California. Our research will result in policy recommendations for optimal low carbon energy source scenarios based on current and expected water availability. Regional and national policymakers and planners will benefit from water-energy models that illustrate the impacts of acute water shortages on China’s energy development plans.

 Both California/SW US and China have committed to ambitious targets in terms of the use of fossil fuel and associated greenhouse gas emissions, as well as policies to improve the sustainable use of water resources. As such, the need for policy harmonization through the deployment of integrated water and energy solutions is consistent across both settings. The challenge of identifying and implementing these solutions within a policy and regulatory environment that largely separates energy and water planning and decision making is also a consistent theme. One difference between California and China is the degree to which public participation will shape efforts to implement integrated water and energy solutions. In California, local initiatives, informed by the public participation requirements of the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) will inform decisions. In China, decisions will predominantly rest in the hands of local officials charged with complying with targets set at the national level. In both cases, however, the energy and water management institutions charged with implementing energy and water policy are separate, distinct, and only loosely connected.

The overall technical approach taken in this research will be to deploy nested models of the energy and water systems that capture the state/regional and national systems while allowing for the evaluation of local initiatives within a formal decision making under uncertainty framework. This framework, referred to as Robust Decision Support, requires the participation of appropriate energy and water actors, who typically do not engage in joint planning and decision making, in a series of formal workshops guided by the deployment of models in support of the evaluation of potential integrated energy and water solutions.

We will assemble decision-makers and stakeholders for water management in China and California, including energy planners, agriculturalists, city suppliers, and environmental delegates, for participatory workshops to explore system dynamics as part of Robust Decision Support (RDS) for long-term strategic planning. The workshops will collect data characterizing infrastructure, pricing schedules, demand, supply and potential supply variability, and management goals for the future. Over the rest of the project period, we will: (1) construct MYWAS models for case study areas in China and California using the workshop data and other data; (2) conduct system analyses for MYWAS models to optimize water allocation according to economic principles for maximizing benefits; (3) use scenario analyses to explore the implementation of various management decisions on externalities such as climate change, and their impacts on the management goals identified in the RDS framework; and (4) provide guidance to the CERC-WET Consortium about the socio-economic tradeoffs associated with different water allocations and policies, considering energy use, environmental requirements, domestic demand requirements, and food security concerns.   

Publications:

• Li, Xi, et al. "Energy for water utilization in China and policy implications for integrated planning." International Journal of Water Resources Development 32.3 (2016): 477-494.

The team will also prepare a Legal Analysis Report of Recycled Water Contracts for the Electricity Sector that examines and analyzes the existing contract structure between recycled water suppliers and thermal power customers, and consider alternative contract structures that may increase the flexibility of the system. The work will also include Lifecycle System Analysis of the Water Energy Processes and Technologies.